Already this world is riddled with superstition and pseudo science.
It's not just the stereotypical housewife or the illiterate person who is superstitious....A HUGE number of educated businessmen too take their business decisions based NOT on analyses by financial professionals...but...based on astrological predictions! For example Business Astr.olo.gers, Ast.roSa.gar, Sensex Prediction. If people in the businessworld were not superstitious, why would such pseudo scientific businesses thrive?
These 'astro predictors' claim to be experts in mysticism and spirituality.
Pure mysticism can NEVER endorse astrology, palmistry, tarot, etc. Such pseduo science is not a part of real mysticism. Cannot be. Pure mysticism does not 'predict'.
Predicting Reality is not possible.
Coming back to Octopus Paul....
It's common sense that only the successful 'predictor' will gain public attention.
For the ONE Octopus Paul that succeeded, one can imagine how many others must have tried their luck and failed. It is just a coincidence that Octopus Paul got the correct sequence.
A HUGE number would have tried - because a sports event of such magnitude - involves a huge amount of betting.
One, of the thousands who tried, managed to nail the winners sequence. What is so magical about that?
Some info from Wiki: Paul_the_Octopus:
Paul's apparent success is comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin.
This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelharter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris.
The Statistics:
1. The probability of 12 or more successful predictions in 14 attempts is p = 0.0065 (~0.65%).
2. The probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is p = 0.0039 (~0.39%).
3.Given that the first three matches could have ended in a draw, the chance of an 8/8 score is 1/864 (= 1/33 X 1/25) ~ 0.11%.
4. The probability of final four predictions being correct is 1/24 = 0.0625 = 6.25%.
UPDATE:
Probability of 8 on 8 correct (when only two choices are there) is 1/28 = 0.0039 or 0.39%. That's 39 on 10000.
Given that the first three matches could have ended in a draw, the chance of an 8/8 score is 1/864 (= 1/33 X 1/25) ~ 0.11% OR 11 in 10000.
These calculations are established probability theory.
You could say that out of every 10000 people who try to guess the correct sequence, about 11 will get it right.
Out of 10,000 octopuses who try to guess the winning teams (all 8 matches of 2010) --- there will be about 11 Octopus Pauls.
An event as huge as the FIFA world cup ---- tens of thousands of people will try to guess the correct sequence --- we dont hear about the failure. We hear only about the success.
Link: Probability of 8/8 correct.
Some comparisons:
1. The chance of a player receiving a triplet of aces in a game of cards is smaller than Octopus Paul's 8/8 guess (11 on 10,000). The chance of a triplet of aces is about 2 in 10,000. But it can happen.
| Further Reading: DNA Blogs: Vivek Kaul |
